123: 80 Years Later, Japan’s Big Problem (2)

【Even in Urban Cities】
In July’s upper house election, Japan’s conservatives won in a landslide margin of 42.2%pts. Worse still, Sanseito--a party known for rhetoric and behavior disturbingly reminiscent of Militarist Japan--came in second in total votes, trailing only the LDP. [See Previous]
 
But this rightward shift isn’t entirely new. So, why do so many Japanese voters continue to support these conservative parties?
 
The answer may lie in urban voting patterns.
 
Urban cities are often seen as important barometers of social progress, not only in Japan but globally. It’s because they attract people, education, jobs, and diversity. Japan, in particular, is experiencing an ever-increasing concentration of everything in Tokyo.
 
So, what do Tokyo’s election results tell us? In the upper house election, Tokyo elected 7 representatives. Here are the vote shares among them:
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1. LDP–Suzuki:                     17.8%
2. Sanseito–Saya:               15.4%
3. Kokumin–Ushida:         14.6%
4. Komeito–Kawamura: 13.9%
5. Kokumin–Okumura:   13.5%
6. JCP–Kira:                           12.9%
7. CDP–Shiomura:             11.9%

 
Which sums up to:

• Conservatives: 75.2% (​National average: 71.1%)​​
• Liberals:                24.8%​ (National average: 28.9%)

 
That’s a staggering 50.3%pt margin conservative victory in Tokyo. In other words, Tokyo is even more conservative than the rest of the country already dominated by conservatives.
 
Here, we witness a stark contrast to the situation in the US.
 
As shared in the previous blog post, the last US presidential election resulted in a conservative victory, but only by a 1.5%pt margin.
 
More importantly, urban areas overwhelmingly voted liberal.
 
This divide is rooted in geography. While much of America’s landmass is rural, the urban centers--though small in area--are densely populated, culturally diverse, and rich in education/job opportunities. This results in urban populations being largely liberal, while rural areas tend to be the complete opposite.
 
This divide is reflected in vote shares in major liberal states and their urban centers:
 
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New York State: Trump 44% vs. Harris 56% → 12%pt liberal win

• Manhattan: Trump 18% vs. Harris 82% → 64%pt liberal win

 
California: Trump 38% vs. Harris 58% → 20%pt liberal win

• San Francisco: Trump 16% vs. Harris 80% → 64%pt liberal win

 
Massachusetts: Trump 36% vs. Harris 62% → 26%pt liberal win

• Boston: Trump 22% vs. Harris 75% → 53%pt liberal win

 
Statewide, people voted liberal, with urban centers showing overwhelming support.
 
What’s more, even in conservative states, urban centers voted liberal. Here are some examples:
 
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Louisiana: Trump 60% vs. Harris 38% → 22%pt conservative win

• New Orleans: Trump 15% vs. Harris 82% → 67%pt liberal win

 
Texas: Trump 56% vs. Harris 42% → 14%pt conservative win

• Dallas: Trump 38% vs. Harris 60% → 22%pt liberal win

 
Georgia: Trump 51% vs. Harris 49% → 2%pt conservative win

• Atlanta: Trump 27% vs. Harris 72% → 45%pt liberal win

 
So, even where conservatives won statewide, urban centers tell a very different story.
 
Compare this with Japan, where conservatives won nationally by 42.2%pts, AND in Tokyo by 50.3%pts. The pattern is a complete reversal from the US.
 
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By the way, the most conservative states in America are all rural:
 
Wyoming:          46%pt conservative win
West Virginia: 42%pt conservative win
Idaho:                   37%pt conservative win
(Tokyo:                  50.3%pt conservative  win)
 
It’s terribly concerning that Tokyo is even more conservative than America’s ultra-conservative rural states.
 
Why then, is Tokyo--arguably one of the most urbanized metropolis in the world--so conservative?
 
We'll explore that question in the next post.

Read Next: 80 Years Later, Japan’s Big Problem (3)【Inclusive Education】
Read Previous: 80 Years Later, Japan’s Big Problem (1)【People’s Choice】
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